While the entire semiconductor industry is busy destocking, IGBTs (insulated-gate bipolar transistors) are almost the only exception.

Recently, many market participants reported that due to the impact of previous demand and capacity mismatch, IGBT continued to outsupply, "simply can not get the goods", some manufacturers even raised the relevant OEM price by 10%. This is likely to continue throughout the year.

01

The shortage lasted for years

Igbts have long been out of stock. Data show that in 2021, the demand of IGBT in China will reach 130 million, with a year-on-year growth of 20.00%. Production was 25.8 million, up 27.72% year on year; The difference between production and demand was 106.2 million.

According to industry insiders, in May 2022, the shortage of IGBTs in the market reached more than 50 weeks, and the gap between supply and demand extended to more than 50%. Some leading suppliers even said that their orders for automotive IGBTs were full and would not accept new orders.

After entering 2023, the IGBT shortage situation still failed to improve, the current IGBT products are in short supply, the existing capacity has been basically sold out, the supply pressure is larger, the new production expansion order has been locked in advance by the downstream manufacturers. As for the phenomenon of IGBT being frantically snapped up, the industry insiders described it as, "It is not a matter of how high the price is, but that it is impossible to buy."

China Taiwan media reported that, due to the IGBT market hot, early this year, Taiwan foundry Hanlei Technology Co., LTD. (hereinafter referred to as "Hanlei Technology"), the IGBT production line OEM price increased by 10%. Data show that Hanlei technology is a focus on power semiconductor OEM production enterprises, holding a large number of IGBT chip components leading Infineon orders.

Analysts believe that the IGBT this short supply, mainly by the electric vehicle, photovoltaic two major mainstream application demand increase.

Public data show that IGBT is a kind of high-voltage resistant power switch component, is one of the most representative products in the third revolution of power electronics technology, has the reputation of "power electronics CPU", its main function is to convert high-voltage direct current into alternating current, so it is widely used in industrial control, new energy vehicles, photovoltaic wind power and other fields.

In 2020, there was a wave of "core shortage" in the automobile industry, after which IGBT began to be "mad grab" by the automobile enterprises. At the same time, domestic and foreign solar power plants are also expanding rapidly, and photovoltaic inverters need a large number of IGBT. The combination of the two industries has led to a huge shortage of IGBTs.

When the IGBT shortage problem can be solved, the industry is also highly concerned.

According to DIGITIMES, the overall global supply and demand gap of IGBT in 2022 reached 13.6%. In 2023, with the continuous expansion of global IGBT production capacity and the slowing growth of electric vehicle market, the global supply and demand gap of IGBT will narrow to -2.5% in 2023, and the current shortage phenomenon is gradually coming to an end.

02

"Two wheels" drive the 60 billion market

The problem of IGBTs being out of stock reflects its important position in the electronics industry. In recent years, the rapid development of IGBT industry has been driven by the rapid advance of new energy vehicles and photovoltaic industry.

According to the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, 87.41GW of new photovoltaic installations will be installed in China in 2022, up 59.3% year on year, and growth is expected to continue in 2023.

According to the China Automobile Association, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in 2022 will be 7.058 million and 6.887 million, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 96.9% and 93.4%. It is expected that the sales of new energy vehicles in 2023 will reach 9 million. The electric vehicle market is now the most important source of incremental business for IGBT. The number of IGBT used in an electric vehicle is up to hundreds, which is seven to ten times that of traditional fuel vehicles. Among new energy vehicles, the IGBT price accounts for 7%-10% of the vehicle cost.

Driven by downstream demand, the IGBT market is expanding rapidly. Data show that in 2022, the market demand of China's automobile IGBT is 14.732 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 114.72%; Pv IGBT market size was about 4.149 billion yuan, up 11.62% year on year.

Soochow Securities estimates that the IGBT market in China will reach 60.1 billion yuan in 2025, with a CAGR of up to 30%. Among them, electric vehicle IGBT demand will reach 38.7 billion yuan, CAGR as high as 69%.

03

Domestic alternatives meet the challenge head-on

The industrial application of IGBT started in the 1980s. At the beginning of its development, well-known overseas manufacturers such as Infineon and Mitsubishi Electric occupied the advantage of "card space", while the local Chinese manufacturers are lagging behind the international giants in terms of technology and market due to their late entry.

According to Omdia and Capital Securities, Infineon ranked first in the global market share of IGBT modules in 2020 with 36.5%. The top three are Infineon, Fujifilm and Mitsubishi, with a combined market share of 57.69%.

The only domestic company in the top 10 was Star Half Guide, which ranked sixth with 2.8% of the market share, a big gap with international giants.

Experts believe that Chinese IGBT products are still mainly 1-4 generation, and the gap between them and international giants such as Infineon and Mitsubishi Electric is more than 10 years. However, the gap of 5th generation products is expected to be shortened to 10 years, and the gap of 6th and 7th generation products is expected to be within 5 years.

Between 2016 and 2021, the process of indigenous IGBT replacement accelerated. DIGITIMES pointed out that the 2021-2023 IGBT production expansion will be led by Chinese companies. The global chip shortage has led to the shortage of IGBT chip suppliers such as Infineon, Mitsubishi and Fujifilm. Chinese IGBT companies will successfully enter downstream customers through low prices, timely customer service and stable supply chain. And gradually pull up capacity to increase market share.

According to institutional research, the self-sufficiency rate of IGbTin 2021 is 19.55%, and with the capacity expansion of domestic enterprises such as Star Semi-Guide, the self-sufficiency rate is expected to reach 26.50% in 2022. With the acceleration of domestic substitution, IGBT chip prices are expected to further reduce, at the same time bring a larger market space.

04

The latest progress of domestic enterprises

Star semiconductor

In 2022, the net profit of the parent is expected to be between 812 million yuan and 825 million yuan, with year-on-year growth of 103.82% to 107.09%; In the field of new energy vehicles, the company's vehicle gauge level SiC module applied to the main motor controller of 800V high voltage platform was loaded in large quantities in the high-end new energy vehicle market. In the field of photovoltaic power generation and energy storage, the company's IGBT modules and discrete devices in photovoltaic power stations and energy storage systems for mass installation and rapid production.

Slanwei

At present, the 12-inch IGBT has a production capacity of 15,000 pieces, and the IGBT production of vehicle gauge level is on the climb. The agency is expected to report a 19.27% year-on-year decline in net profit in 2022.

Time Electric

The company estimates that the net profit attributable to the parent in 2022 will be 2.556 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 26.67%; The operating revenue was 18.034 billion yuan, up 19.26% year on year. IGBT has been applied in batches to power transmission and distribution, rail transit, new energy vehicles, wind power generation, photovoltaic power generation, high voltage frequency converters and other fields, the company said.

Macro micro technology

The IGBT module products for the main drive inverter of electric vehicles have been supplied in small quantities. The estimated revenue for 2022 is 929 million yuan, up 68.75 percent year on year. In 2022, the company will strengthen the demand docking and application technical services for key customers, and realize the mass import of standard and customized products such as photovoltaic, electric vehicles, frequency converters and UPS.

BYD

In March this year, BYD semiconductor official release, the latest launch of the SOT-227 package IGBT/diode series module.

auspicious

In March this year, Zhejiang Jinneng Microelectronics Co., LTD., a subsidiary of Geely Technology, announced that its first vehicle gauge IGBT product independently designed and developed has been successfully launched, and all parameters of the new chip have met the design requirements